We analyzed 96,217 ATP & WTA matches with betting odds. This page shows how often the favorite actually wins, and which surfaces, levels and tours produce the most upsets.
| Favorite odds | Matches | Favorite won |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00–1.25 | 33,523 | 89.4% |
| 1.25–1.50 | 31,756 | 73.1% |
| 1.50–2.00 | 30,938 | 58.7% |
Short-priced favorites win nearly always; the market is well-calibrated across bands.
| Surface | Matches | Upset rate |
|---|---|---|
| Grass | 2,531 | 30.2% |
| Clay | 41,428 | 25.8% |
| Hard | 51,267 | 25.7% |
| Carpet | 991 | 24.2% |
| Tour | Matches | Upset rate |
|---|---|---|
| ATP | 53,149 | 26.5% |
| WTA | 43,068 | 25.1% |
| Level | Matches | Upset rate |
|---|---|---|
| Masters 1000 | 1,650 | 32.5% |
| WTA 1000 | 1,743 | 32.1% |
| ATP 250 | 1,999 | 31.3% |
| WTA 500 | 1,136 | 31.1% |
| WTA 250 | 1,700 | 29.4% |
| Grand Slam | 3,058 | 28.0% |
| ATP 500 | 1,067 | 27.6% |
| Situation | Matches | Favorite won |
|---|---|---|
| Favourite on a 3+ win streak | 15,421 | 72.1% |
| Favourite not on a streak | 80,796 | 74.5% |
A win streak coming in is a small signal. The market already prices most of it.
