Every rated match replayed in order; before each, the model’s calibrated pre-match win probability (ELO + form/fatigue) is scored against the actual result. 241,147 matches evaluated, calibrated out-of-sample, so predicted ≈ actual across the board.
| Level | Matches | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| ITF_M15 | 58,461 | 69.6% |
| ITF_M25 | 34,822 | 67.0% |
| ITF_W15 | 34,206 | 68.1% |
| ITF_W35 | 27,444 | 65.5% |
| Challenger 75 | 14,693 | 61.2% |
| ITF_W50 | 10,485 | 64.1% |
| ITF_W75 | 8,456 | 65.0% |
| Grand Slam | 6,225 | 73.5% |
| Challenger 100 | 5,918 | 60.6% |
| Challenger 125 | 5,465 | 60.0% |
| Challenger 50 | 5,246 | 63.1% |
| WTA_125 | 5,178 | 61.1% |
| ITF_W100 | 4,322 | 63.0% |
| ATP 250 | 4,170 | 61.3% |
| WTA 1000 | 3,579 | 64.9% |
| WTA 250 | 3,498 | 62.3% |
| Masters 1000 | 3,440 | 63.4% |
| WTA 500 | 2,347 | 64.5% |
| ATP 500 | 2,135 | 65.0% |
| Challenger 175 | 822 | 59.5% |
| UNITED_CUP | 144 | 63.9% |
| ATP Finals | 46 | 69.6% |
| WTA Finals | 45 | 64.4% |
| Predicted | Actual | Matches |
|---|---|---|
| 52.5% | 52.1% | 46,613 |
| 57.5% | 57.9% | 43,899 |
| 62.4% | 62.8% | 38,941 |
| 67.4% | 68.3% | 33,134 |
| 72.4% | 73.4% | 27,444 |
| 77.4% | 79.2% | 21,419 |
| 82.3% | 85.1% | 15,473 |
| 87.2% | 89.5% | 9,047 |
| 92.1% | 91.7% | 3,911 |
| 97.3% | 89.4% | 1,266 |
Well-calibrated when “Predicted” ≈ “Actual” in each row.
On the 100,371 matches where bookmaker odds exist, how our independent ELO+form model (no odds as input) compares to the market’s own (vig-removed) prediction:
Bookmakers price far more than results (injuries, matchups, money flow), so the market is sharper. Still, a model built purely from match results, with no odds as input, holds its own, and (verified out-of-sample) even adds a little signal the market slightly under-prices. It does not beat the market after the bookmaker’s margin, though. The strategy tester lets you confirm that for yourself.
Computed 2026-07-20. Predictions scored only once both players have ≥10 rated matches (excludes cold-start noise).
Beyond model accuracy: test your own prediction strategies. Configure edge, odds, surface, form and staking, then replay it over ~99k historical matches with real odds.Test your own prediction strategies →The same engine powers the live ranking. Go Pro for the full points fall-off calendar, player tracking + drop alerts, and the season planner.Start free trial →
